Brandenburg state election: Survey Hammer for AfD, behind it is a bit tight

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Also, the latest survey to the state election 2019 in Brandenburg shows a likely tight result. There are probably several coalitions possible.

Update from August 15, 2019: The upcoming state election in Brandenburg is likely to readjust the balance of political power. Because even in the latest survey of the polling institute Civey for the Tagesspiegel and the mirror the right-wing party is ahead with 21 percent.

Behind a head-to-head race begins: The SPD threatens a crash to 18 percent, the Greens and the CDU come to 17 percent. The Left, which has governed since 2009 with the SPD in Brandenburg in a red-red coalition, achieved just under 15 percent. The FDP would create 5.5 percent after five years without a mandate again in the state legislature.

Update from August 11, 2019: The SPD threatens the next resounding voter slap. Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke now fears publicly that the AfD could push his Social Democrats from the throne. In a roundmail, which he had sent media reports according to the weekend to the 6,500 Brandenburg SPD members, he said "that it is not a specter, we paint on the wall, but an AfD victory can be bitter reality," the newspaper quoted Potsdam Latest News,

In a survey conducted by the polling institute Forsa on Friday, 21 percent of respondents had opted for the AfD. The investigation, commissioned by the Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung, voted 18 percent of respondents for the CDU, followed by the SPD with 17 percent. In fourth place came the Greens with 16 percent. The Left landed at 14 percent. The FDP can hope with five percent for the re-entry into the state parliament. For BVB / free voters, four percent of respondents decided. Currently, a red-red coalition has ruled in Brandenburg since 2009.

It is therefore still a completely open question, who in 2019 Prime Minister of Brandenburg will. Meanwhile, the CDU has made a mistake in the election campaign.

In addition, the AfD politician Björn Höcke was a guest in the MDR summer interview. However, that the television viewers should have given him personal information, however, caused great horror.

Video: Wolf figure with an offensive greeting as a protest

First report: Polls before the Brandenburg election 2019

Potsdam – The trend is clear: The government in Brandenburg is in the state election on 1 September 2019 before the election. SPD and CDU are weakening enormously, while Green and AfD are on the rise. Thus, the Red-Red Alliance of the SPD and Left would lose the majority for the first time in ten years – but for a trio of Red-Red-Green it would currently be enough according to a recent INSA survey (see table below).

What do you mean, who has the lead in Brandenburg in 2019? Join in and vote!

Above all, the Social Democrats could hit it hard in comparison to the last election in 2014: Have the comrades five years ago still over 31 percent of the vote, according to recent survey values ​​slip below 20 percent and thus fall behind AfD, Green and CDU.

Landtag election Brandenburg 2019: That's what the forecasts for CDU and SPD say

The trend of the European elections is likely to continue in the state election in Brandenburg. This benefits above all the Greens and the AfD. If the right-wing populists still ranked at 12.2 percent in 2014, they could become the strongest party in the state from 1 September 2019 onwards. According to an Infratest poll from June, the group gets over 21 percent. This would make Brandenburg the second federal state to Saxony, in which the alternative for Germany can become the number one. However, this led to a problem for the Saxon neighbors: The AfD had not enough members after the municipal election in 2019 to occupy the required seats. Especially in the east of the republic, the party is ahead. But why can right-wing populists score so much, especially in the New Länder?

The acting Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) must fear for his post in Brandenburg.

© dpa / Bernd Settnik

State parliament election 2019 in Brandenburg: According to survey the pressure on the SPD rises

With a turnaround, the troubled political parties SPD and CDU in the East can not expect. On the contrary, they must fear for their survival. The incumbent Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) could – so the prognosis in the months before the election – probably only go on, if he brings the Greens on board. These climb according to the surveys according to the nationwide trend also in Brandenburg in the voter favor up. If they had made it to the provincial election in 2014 with just 6.2 percent so the entry into the state parliament, they are in the Infratest survey in June at 17 percent – and thus on par with the CDU and only one percentage point behind the SPD. The FDP is stagnating at five percent – so they must fear because of the five-percent hurdle for the move to the state parliament.

Meanwhile, CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak has renounced a cooperation between CDU and AfD – and thus also a proposal by Hans-Georg Maaßen – a clear rejection.

Election campaign of the Greens in Brandenburg

© dpa / Bernd Settnik

State election 2019 in Brandenburg: This is the current state parliament

The Landtag in Brandenburg basically consists of 88 deputies, 44 are elected by majority vote in the constituencies, the rest by proportional representation according to the national lists of parties and associations. Overhang and balancing mandates can increase this number to a maximum of 110. The details are specified in the Brandenburg Land election law. The minimum age for the right to vote is 16 years. Thus, anyone who was born by September 1, 2003 may vote. The last term for the eligibility of a candidate is 1 September 2001.

Surveys on the State Parliament election 2019 in Brandenburg (figures in percent)

Civey (Mirror / Daily Mirror)

08/15/2019

17

18

17

5.5

15

21

6.5

Forsa (MAZ)

09/08/2019

18

17

16

5

14

21

9

Civey (mirror)

07/17/2019

16.3

17.2

15.1

5.2

16.9

21.3

8th

INSA (FIG)

07/02/2019

18

19

16

6

16

19

BVB / FW 3
Otherwise. 3

Infratest dimap (client: RBB)

06/11/2019

17

18

17

5

14

21

BVB / FW 4
Otherwise. 4

INSA (FIG)

05/30/2019

20

19

12

5

18

20

BVB 3
Otherwise. 3

Infratest dimap (RBB, Antenna Brandenburg)

09/04/2019

20

22

12

5

16

19

6

INSA (FIG)

07/02/2019

21

21

10

5

17

19

BVB 4
Otherwise. 3

pmg – policy matters (SPD-LV)

01/10/2019

21

23

10

3

18

21

4

Forsa (Märkische Allgemeine)

01/01/2019

19

20

12

5

17

20

7

Infratest dimap (Brandenburg)

09/19/2018

21

23

7

5

17

23

4

INSA (FIG)

08/17/2018

18

23

8th

5

18

21

BVB 4

Otherwise. 3

Infratest dimap (RBB, Antenna Brandenburg)

04/18/2018

23

23

7

4

17

22

4

Infratest dimap (RBB)

14/11/2017

22

23

6

7

17

20

5

Forsa (Märkische Allgemeine)

11/10/2017

22

25

6

5

18

18

6

* merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen digital editorial network

Although the final result will only be decided on election Sunday, voters can of course also apply for a postal vote at the state election in Brandenburg. For this, above all, the election notification for Brandenburg election is required, which otherwise you have to bring to the polling station.

Hundred party officials of the AfD are against the Thuringian AfD state chairman and right wing outside Björn Höcke. They accuse him of cleavage tendencies and a "personality cult".

If you do not yet know what you should mark on the ballot at the state election in Brandenburg, you can use the Wahl-O-Mat, which can serve as an electoral decision-making aid.

In addition, you will find all the information about the simultaneous election in Saxony. These include the current forecasts and surveys before the state election in Saxony and the forecasts for the Thuringia election on October 27, we provide for you.

Four weeks before the state election in Brandenburg, an SPD candidate has been thinking aloud about an alliance with the AfD. The turn delivers a new scandal.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer under verbal continuous fire: In the debate over the dealings with ex-constitutional protection chief Hans-Georg Maaßen the criticism of the CDU boss does not break off.

joho



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