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The other polls | The Economist


#With data from a platform patented by the firm #Morning #Consult, the spokesmen for the #Fourth #Transformation presume that #Andrés #Manuel López #Obrador is the second best-evaluated president …

#Although they forgot to mention that this consultancy only monitors the approval (and disapproval) rates of the presidents of 13 countries – #Australia, #Brazil, #Canada, #France, #Germany, #India, #Italy, #Japan, #South #Korea, #Spain, the #United #Kingdom and the #United #States. – and that these ratings are based on a moving average of the opinions of adult residents in each of those countries.

#Political #Intelligence is the source of this peculiar “world poll” that concentrates the opinions of 11,000 interviews on the approval of the 19 leaders; #In #Mexico, the data that generate the seven-day moving average comes from 2,500 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 2%, through software that allows access in #Spanish, although the respondent can manually switch to #English.

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#Morning #Consult has its headquarters in #Washington DC, and four years ago it enabled its political intelligence area. #In the presidential elections that year, they presume to have detected the strength of #Bernie #Sanders – and his counterpart, the fragility of #Hillary #Clinton – as well as the phenomenon of the “shy voter” that turned in favor of #Donald #Trump. #Since 2018 the lifting of its “world survey” began.

#Long gone are the times of the daily uprisings on public opinion ordered by the #Presidency of the #Republic. #This technical advisory service for #Los #Pinos was led by the economist #Cassio #Luiselli – who was in charge of the #National #Evaluation #System – in the administration of #José López #Portillo, but it was not until the mandate of #Carlos #Salinas de #Gortari that #Ulises #Beltrán’s team deployed the effort to provide information in real time to the federal #Executive for decision-making … including the agreements and the electoral strategy applied in 1994.

#Four decades ago, when he was in charge of the PRD, López #Obrador also resorted to opinion polls to draw up his electoral strategy. The mathematician #José #Barberán – a prominent member of the #Punto #Critico group and a scholar of electoral fraud in 1988 – advised the #Tabasco politician until his death in 2002. #Among the accumulation of contributions he made – former members of the AMLO office at that time recall – are the foundations of a political line that sought to transcend the narrative that placed the PRI as the guardian of the institutions and the PAN as the promoter of democratic change.

The partisan left – reflected the studies conducted by #Barberán – had to differentiate itself from these proposals and propose a radical change, with a focus on the purification of public life, on the transformation of institutions.

#Enrique #Calderón #Alzati, from the #Rosembleuth #Foundation, conducted the polls for the PRD. #Barberán was a close advisor to AMLO during his time in the party leadership and later, in the GDF where he enthusiastically supported those telephone inquiries about daylight saving time.

#Upon #Barberán’s death, #Pedro #Valencia #García became the technical coordinator of the #Headquarters, who had among his collaborators a very young #Gabriel #García #Hernández. #After the electoral failure of 2006, AMLO dispensed with the private polling houses and by 2012 with a group of young people in which the current coordinator of federal programs and #Carlos #Emiliano #Calderón #Mercado participated, he developed his own team and methodology to press opinion of the electorate.

The #Polling #Commission was institutionalized in #Morena when that political formation obtained registration as a national political party. #García #Hernández was its #Secretary for #Organization and in that instance —created by statutory disposition— #Calderón #Mercado, #Juan #Morales #Velasco and #Raimundo #Artis #Espriú, another former collaborator from #Cardenista and former capital official, participated.

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AMLO pollsters also made history and after the 2018 campaign they joined the government of the #Republic. The new party leadership now relies on the #National #Elections #Commission to establish the mechanisms for appointing candidates.

#By 2021, #Mario #Delgado has resolved a dozen appointments of the defenders of the #Fourth #Transformation, who – if the political agreements are respected and there are no legal resources – will soon become the sole candidates for the governorship.

The loudest disagreements about the “insulting farce” come from the relegated applicants in #Colima and #Tlaxcala, but there are also complaints in #Chihuahua, #Baja #California #Sur, #Nayarit and #Zacatecas. #In all cases, #Delgado has relied on the results of online surveys … cheaper and more accurate?

“#Mario #Delgado’s official pollster is in #Nuevo #León,” one of those affected complains, “and in 2018 he worked for #Ricardo #Anaya, with tracking. #This company from #Monterrey offers by 2021 a comprehensive package of measurements and services of positioning by phone calls and digital impacts.

#Side effects

PORTRAITED. The #National #Commission for the #Continuous #Improvement of #Education released the results of the PISA test – applied to students in OECD countries – for 2018. #Mexico’s average score was low in the three areas that PISA assesses: 420 in reading, 419 in mathematics and 409 in science, while the averages for the OECD member countries were 487, 489 and 489, respectively. #In reading, 44.7% of the people evaluated were below level 2, the minimum expected; in mathematics 56.2%; and in science 46.8%. #This indicates that, of the total, 35% did not reach the minimum level of competence in any of the areas analyzed and that only 1% was at a high level of performance in any of them, which contrasts with the respective 13 and 16 points #Percentages obtained by OECD countries on average. The document reveals that in #Mexico women obtain 11 points more in reading than men, who reach 12 points more in mathematics and 9 points more in science than women.

SYNDEMIA. The 2020 closes and the light appears at the bottom of the tunnel. The arrival of vaccines against #Covid-19 in #Mexico will have a progressive growth and although there have been abuses – in #Coahuila and #Edomex – in the application of immunization among health professionals, the hope remains that it will soon be controlled the peak of cases in the #Valley of #Mexico and the health authorities can trace a safe route for universal vaccination. #And eventually, they will need to resume institutional efforts to provide care for other debilitating and deadly diseases that have gone undiagnosed and untreated during the pandemic. #Preventive cancer screenings have plummeted, along with outpatient office visits. #Vaccination rates for diseases like mumps and measles have also dropped …

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#Journalist

#Vital signs

#Journalist and columnist for #El #Economista, author of #Doña #Perpetua: el poder y la opulencia de #Elba #Esther #Gordillo. #Elba #Esther #Gordillo against the SEP.





[ source link ]
https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/opinion/Las-otras-encuestas-20201230-0109.html

#polls ##Economist

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