The National Institute of Statistics, which compares “the level of activity of the current week with the coronavirus epidemic to that which one could have expected from a normal week”, estimates with a kind of instant photo that the loss of economic activity in the country is currently around 35%.
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To arrive at this figure, INSEE used data from direct feedback from companies and professional federations but also, in a more unprecedented way, data on energy consumption, use of rail transport or on transactions by Bank cards.
The industry in great pain
Not all sectors are housed in the same boat: “Agricultural activities should continue only a little below the normal and the food industries would be less affected than the rest of the industry. The whole would see its activity decline only slightly, “explains INSEE, adding:” On the other hand, given the upswing obtained in the various industrial branches, only half of the activity of the rest of the industry would be maintained. “
Among market services, according to the Institute, certain branches are very severely affected (transport, hotel, catering, leisure, etc.) while others are undoubtedly much less (telecommunications, insurance, etc.)
Finally, for non-market services, INSEE notes the sharp drop in certain services such as creches, libraries and sports activities.
Consumption at half mast
Household consumption is also currently 65% of normal due to the reduction “to the minimum” of certain expenses, such as textiles, clothing but also certain goods of the manufacturing industry such as the automobile.
If INSEE remains cautious, due to the evolution of the coronavirus crisis, it nevertheless estimates according to its projections that a confinement of one month would have an impact of the order of a dozen points of quarterly GDP in less (or 3 points of annual GDP).
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