Coronavirus: when will the epidemic peak arrive in France?



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Coronavirus: the pandemic that worries the planet

PANDEMIC – If few experts venture to predict precisely the date of the “epidemic peak” in France, it should probably occur next week.

A peak, yes, but when? France should expect “difficult days”, said Wednesday evening the Director General of Health (DGS). Jerôme Salomon indeed fears daily reports of the victims of the coronavirus who will still climb. It remains to be seen how far.

When questioned on the subject, most experts and doctors kick in touch, preferring to avoid predicting the date of the epidemic peak. “We will get there, I do not have a lot of doubts on this, despite everything conceded Wednesday evening on LCI Pr Eric Caumes, head of the infectious diseases service at La Pitie-Salpetriere.” It is difficult to say, we made so many predictions that turned out to be wrong that now we are wary. But I think within a week we will see the peak. “

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Variations by region

In the Great East, on the other hand, the health system is already at the forefront in this region at the heart of the crisis. “We expect the peak next weekend, that of March 28 and 29,” said this Thursday Professor Christian Rabaud, infectious disease specialist and president of the establishment medical committee at the Nancy University Hospital. Before nuancing, predicting an epidemic over time: “Other people will arrive and fill the hospital. By the time the hospital begins to empty, it will take another two to three weeks.” “The peak is expected midweek” and should “last fifteen days, three weeks,” also said Tuesday Bernard Dupont, director general of the CHRU Nancy.

Other regions, less affected than Grand Est or Ile-de-France, could however experience a surge of delayed cases. This is for example the case of Normandy, where the peak is expected next week according to Christine Gardel, director general of the Regional Health Agency. “We had more time to prepare than other regions which experienced an earlier peak,” she said to France 3.

For the moment the solicitation is still below what we expect– Jean Olivier Arnaud, Director General of Public Assistance – Hôpitaux de Marseille

In the south of France, the Assistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Marseille (AP-HM) is expecting a “wave” of coronavirus patients in the coming days, before a peak in early April, where resuscitation care will reach its limits. “For the moment, the solicitation is still below what we expect,” said Thursday during a telephone press point the director general of the AP-HM, Jean Olivier Arnaud. The influx “is likely to start within 72 hours” and reach “its maximum by the end of next week,” he added.

While it is difficult to predict the exact date of the peak, the Italian scenario seems to be a reliable indicator. France follows its Mediterranean neighbor for eight days. The peak having been reached in the boot, that for France could be expected on March 29 or 30. With a lower level, the “slope” of the French curve is less significant than in Italy. Based on projections modeled on the Italian model, a peak of around 500 deaths in a day could be observed in France.

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