Armin Laschet (CDU) currently has more popular support than ever before: 54 percent of respondents in North Rhine-Westphalia are satisfied with the work of their prime minister. Since it is only consistent that he is already traded as a candidate for Merkel successor. But can Laschet also chancellor?
Not only are congestion and lack of teachers plaguing the people of North Rhine-Westphalia, but Prime Minister Armin Laschet (CDU) is already being traded for higher consecrations.
At half-time, two and a half years after the state election in 2017 and the end for red-green, the coalition of CDU and FDP in NRW – also thanks to bubbling tax revenues – can fulfill some election promises: from the abolition of the eight-year "turbo" bitters on million aid for the daycare until the police are strengthened. Laschet does not challenge the fact that there are broad protests in the country, for example against road construction fees and housing shortages.
Armin Laschet: So much support in the population as never before
While the satisfaction with the black and yellow state government has fallen significantly according to the latest WDR survey, Laschet enjoys more popular support than ever before: 54 percent of respondents are satisfied with their work – after all, 17 percentage points more than in February. And in Berlin he is already being traded as a candidate for the succession of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
In the federal CDU, the vote of the party-Vizes weight – just because it leads the member-strongest national association. Strategists in the CDU and CSU believe that Laschet could be a laughing third in the race for the Union's Chancellor candidate if the SPD decides in December to quit the coalition early.
In any case, he does not repeat the power political cardinal error of his SPD predecessor Hannelore force, who had always excluded the walk to Berlin.
Friedrich Merz thinks he is suitable
Ex-Union faction leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) feels encouraged in the candidate question by good poll ratings, as he says himself. But listening to the tips of the CDU and CSU, the euphoria about a candidate for chancellor of the Sauerlander is clearly hampered.
Even with Laschet, Minister of Health Jens Spahn, Group Leader Ralph Brinkhaus and the head of the SME and Economic Union, Carsten Linnemann, key players in the current candidate debate like Merz come from NRW, is not considered conducive to its ambitions. They could all block each other with their own interests.
CSU boss Markus Soder's word will have weight
In addition, the will to power of CDU chief Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is not to be underestimated. Although she has been fighting against lousy poll numbers for a long time. And at the top of the CDU, there are some who no longer believe that they will become chancellor candidates if they have to prepare for an early election next spring. Whether there would actually be a rebellion against AKK in the party leadership is open.
Also CSU boss Markus SOder will have a weighty word in the decision on the Chancellor candidate to have a say. And what happens if this question is clarified as intended at the party conference in late 2020, nobody can say.
It is also registered in Berlin, however, that Laschet expresses occasional distance to Kramp-Karrenbauer – as recently, when he criticized the fact that the Defense Minister had not voted her push for an international security zone in northern Syria with the coalition partner SPD. Laschet criticizes AKK dosed.
"One must not underestimate Mr. Laschet," says the Dusseldorf political scientist Thomas Poguntke. He behaved cleverly in the leadership debate of the CDU. "He held back for a while, but always made sure he kept talking."
In any case, there will be no way around Laschet's vote when deciding on the next chancellor candidate of the Union. Although Spahn concentrates publicly on his ministerial work, internally it says that he has by no means set aside ambitions for the Chancellery.
Can the reality check in the federal government work?
Laschet, despite its current popularity in the country only partially breathe. Although the CDU is according to poll in NRW with 32 percent further clear strongest force and thus a ray of hope for the shaken by electoral deflations Federal CDU. But the FDP is so weak that the governing coalition no longer has a majority.
Conflicts in NRW, however, hardly penetrate to the capital. "Unspectacular, but professional" was the actions of the government from FDP and CDU, says Poguntke. "It makes no big mistakes, but has also developed no great momentum."
In a 43-page work report, black and yellow, as you might expect, has a track record: Unemployment dropped, a second year of nursery is free of charge, and more than 50,000 new day care places have been created. The budget gets along without new debt – but the government wants to do without the further repayment of the 144 billion debt mountain.
In the meantime, the revitalized Greens are positioning themselves in the country. They have pushed the SPD out of second place in the European elections and are so strong in polls that even a move to the State Chancellery is no longer an absurd idea. Laschet would like to be a "black and green coat" umgehangt, but that was not covered by his policy, said Green Party leader Monika Duker recently. As a so-called bridge builders Laschet have failed even in the conflict over the Hambach forest. Although she may like his talent for "empathic speeches," says Duker. "But what comes under presiding over the wheels are important decisions."
In the Union in the federation Laschet is considered as one of the possible chancellor candidates, which could best with the Greens. But if the reality check in the federal government works?
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