According to researchers, the weather phenomenon El Nino will most likely recur in 2020. The sometimes dramatic effects will be felt globally.
- The weather phenomenon El Nino is likely to reoccur in 2020.
- The effects will subsequently be felt globally.
- It can lead to floods and extreme droughts.
- The general climate change reinforces the effects of El Nino.
Giessen / Potsdam – According to researchers, the weather phenomenon El Nino is likely to recur in 2020. For their calculations, they used a new method – previously it was not possible to predict the threatening weather phenomenon so early.
As the University Giessen states, the El-NinoForecasts by researchers from Germany and Israel on an algorithm that analyzes the air temperatures in the Pacific region. This would predict the weather phenomenon much earlier than before. Already with the last two El-NinoEvents could thus be predicted early and correctly using the algorithm.
Weather phenomenon El Nino is expected to come back in 2020 – with dramatic consequences
El Nino occurs at irregular intervals, but approximately every four years. The weather event is triggered by warmer water temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This changes the air and ocean currents and thus influences the weather conditions worldwide. The most dramatic consequences are extreme climatic fluctuations at the edges of the oceans. So can El Nino Floods in South America and extreme droughts in Australia, as well as North Africa, and crop failures in India.
"The conventional methods are not capable of a reliable El-Nino prognosis more than six months in advance," said the physicist Armin Bunde from Gieben. However, an earlier forecast could help farmers in South America, Asia and Australia better prepare for the possible consequences.
Weather phenomenon El Nino returns in 2020 – new model predicted weather phenomenon twice already
The new model used allows the prediction that with a probability of 80 percent El Nino will reappear in the coming year, the researchers write around Josef Ludescher from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The Israeli Bar-Ilan University was also involved.
The research group used a network of atmospheric temperature data in the tropical Pacific for its methodology, which was already reported in 2013. According to the scientists, the method determines how the temperatures in the core area of El Nino near the equator with those outside of this region – and will alert you if the link strength exceeds a certain threshold.
Weather phenomenon El Nino is intensifying: Climate change makes consequences even more dramatic
"The algorithm is relatively simple and can do without the big global climate models," said Bunde. Only the temperature data in the Pacific region were included in the calculations. About the strength of El Nino the scientists can not yet make a statement: "We are researching to predict the strength right now."
In general, however, other researchers have found that El Nino is exacerbated by overall climate change, especially by generally rising water temperatures, The climatic consequences of the weather phenomenon are also becoming stronger.
Early warning for "El Nino" by JLU pouring https://t.co/2acQrfk5wQ #Indicator
– pour local time (@LokalzeitGI) November 5, 2019
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