Spain plunges again into uncertainty



All that for this. Despite the early elections held this Sunday and supposed to promote the formation of a government, the Spanish are still far from the political blockage. The Socialist Party (PSOE) of the outgoing chief executive, Pedro Sanchez, gets three fewer MPs than in the April 28 elections. The extreme right is rising dramatically and moving from fifth to third place. The new configuration does nothing to solve the diabolical equation in which Spanish politics is stuck.

Six months after the last parliamentary elections, the PSOE won 28% of the vote and 120 seats in the 350-member Congress of Deputies, according to 93% of the votes cast. The People's Party (PP, right) gets 21% and goes from 66 to 88 deputies. Vox, of far right, is the great beneficiary of the stuttering, with 52 seats, instead of 24 obtained in April. Ciudadanos (center right) pays the fruit of its ideological back and forth with 10 seats, against 57 previously. Podemos (radical left) would receive 35 parliamentarians instead of 42 of the outgoing parliament.

Neither the right block nor the left block obtains an absolute majority

Neither the right block nor the left block obtains the absolute majority. Again, the only way out will come from regional formations or the break-up of the two big blocks. The voters met at the exit of polling stations testified to a double choice: a favorite party, but also a favorite alliance. Alicia, Sagrario and Olvido, daughter, mother and grandmother met in Lavapies, half-popular neighborhood, half bobo of Madrid, all voted PSOE – "Otherwise, the grandmother gets angry!"Alicia jokes. The mother would like a PSOE-PP pact: "Podemos is really too far left!", she says. The girl pouted.

A stone's throw from the Spanish Steps, an affluent neighborhood, Emmanuelle, a Franco-Spanish professor, voted PP and would have liked an alliance with Ciudadanos and Vox, "But without giving them ministries". On paper, several scenarios are possible.

● The Frankenstein Government

This is the preferred term of the right to describe the alliance between the PSOE, Catalan separatists and various regional forces. It is this composite majority that voted the motion of censure against Mariano Rajoy (PP), replaced in the summer of 2018 by Pedro Sanchez. The right castigates the disposition of the Socialists to ally with the opponents of national unity to rule the country. Sanchez sought to remove this ghost by withdrawing his offer of a coalition government with Podemos, which the ERC Catalan separatists (center left) and the Basque nationalists of the PNV (center right) were ready to support.

● The "technical" abstention of the right

If the major national parties agree that the governability of the country should not depend on secessionist parties, it would be logical for the main opposition forces to let the ruling party dominate. The PSOE abstained in 2016 at the inauguration of Rajoy. But this decision, made precisely after the holding of early elections, had caused the departure of the then Secretary General, a certain … Pedro Sanchez. When the Socialists claim an elevator return, the right recalls Sanchez's response three years ago: "No es no" ("no is no"). The PP president, Pablo Casado, has ruled out facilitating a Sanchez government. "The pressures for an agreement will be enormous, however, Ana Sofia Cardenal, a professor of political science at the Universitat oberta de Catalunya, judges. Pressures of economic power, the establishment and Europe. "

● The grand coalition

An alliance of three parties at the center of the game, PSOE, Ciudadanos and PP, would gather 218 seats, a very large majority of Parliament. Never experienced, the "gran coalicion" seduces the business community but is rejected by the main stakeholders. It would leave all the game of the opposition to the two most radical formations: Podemos on the left, Vox on the right, the separatists in Catalonia.

● The alliance of the three rights

The parliamentary alliance between PP, Ciudadanos and Vox, operates in many regions and town halls. But without an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies, the block of rights has no chance to work. No regional force will join its voices to those of Vox, who wants to recentralize Spain.

● The third elections

The worst case scenario can not be totally ruled out. Political parties were unable to agree between April and September. Since then, the PSOE and Podemos have blamed each other for the failure of their negotiations. The ERC separatists will have a much harder time helping Madrid get out of the deadlock, while Spanish justice has just sentenced their comrades to heavy prison terms. One element can save Spain from the vertigo of the third election: the fear of emptiness.

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