The last day that polls and surveys were allowed to be published was November 4. That same day at night took place the electoral debate who starred in the five main political parties that lead these elections: PSOE, Popular Party, United We Can, Citizens and VOX.
Throughout these weeks, endless surveys have been released to estimate the results of the general elections. Each of the surveys estimated a different outcome, but all point to the maintenance of the political blockade in Spain after the 10N elections.
Pending the scrutiny that clarifies the new composition of the Congress of Deputies, most polls show a political scenario in which the sum of blocks, both right and left, seems complicated. On April 28 he left a clear victory of the PSOE, unable after investing his candidate -Pedro Sanchez- in an investiture session marked by the lack of understanding with United We Can.
Below we review the most relevant surveys published during the period allowed by the Electoral Law:
The CIS figures of Tezanos
The last data CIS of Tezanos gave the PSOE a wide victory (133-150 seats) with which he could agree with both Citizens (27-35) and United We (37-45) or the Popular Party (74-81) and reach the majority.
Given these possible results, we can see how a great coalition between bipartisanship would generate a government of ample absolute majority (176). If the 133-150 parliamentarians of the PSOE plus the 74-81 of the PP were united, the sum would grant a result of between 207-231 seats.
If we prefer to be PSOE and United We can reach an agreement, the sum, in its highest forks, would also reach the parliamentary majority with between 170 and 195 'yeses'.
With this data, the right would not add up in any of the ways. If they agreed PP (74-81), Cs (27-35) and Vox (14-21) the total would not reach the majority 115-137. However, if we choose the pact between PSOE and Citizens would achieve the majority. Yes, if we take into account the most positive results that the macro survey gives to each of the formations (185 deputies and deputies).
The latest CIS survey also predicted that the CUP would enter with 2 seats in Congress, that the left would come to vote and that the undecided would add 32% of the electorate. But since everything is predictions, we will have to wait to know who agrees with whom.
The pre-election macro survey of the Center for Sociological Research was published on October 29 and carried out between September 21 and October 13. It should be noted that these Tezanos figures they did not take into account the possible effects derived from the exhumation of Franco, nor those of the publication of the sentence of the process.
He the political scientist Pablo Simon He also recalled in Al Rojo Vivo that this survey began to be conducted even before the elections were called and that is why its results should be taken "as a still photo" and valued "very cautiously".
Surveys published by Spanish newspapers
In the last survey conducted by NC Report in October for the newspaper The reason It was estimated that the PSOE would win again these elections with 27.3% of the votes and would get between 114 and 122 seats. Sanchez would lose more than 800,000 votes with respect to past elections.
For his part, Pablo Iglesias would get 32 seats and also lose votes. Between both political parties they would not be able to add the majority. On the other hand, Ínigo Errejon would obtain representation for More Country in the Congress with four seats, but with which neither the left would obtain 176 seats in the Congress. He PP would improve your results previous and Citizens would collapse.
According to this survey, Vox would have between 37 and 39 seats and minority parties, among which is the CUP with two seats in the lower house, approximately 40 seats.
In the barometer it offers ABC, and that GAD3 performs, the PSOE would be close to its April election results with 27.4% of the votes. The PP would go from 66 to 92-95 representatives, a very favorable result. Vox would be the third force policy with 14.9% of the votes, also improving its previous results.
According to this poll, United we can and Citizens would be the political forces that would lose the most support in this electoral repetition. The new party of Ínigo Errejon, More Country, would have 2.8% of votes and 3 deputies, and the rest of the parties that attend the elections; CUP, PNV, Bildu, Junts, Navarra Suma, Coalicion Canaria, PRC, BNG and Teruel There would be 13.2%, between 37 and 40 seats in total.
The newspaper The world it places winners of the left-wing parties with between 157 and 170 seats, while for the right-wing party it expects between 144 and 160. According to the Sigma Two survey for this newspaper, the PSOE would get 27.9% of the votes and between 118 and 126 seats; the PP would get between 89 and 97; Vox, with 13.2% of the votes, between 39 and 44, and Cs around 16-19. More Country would have 4% of the votes and 4 deputies. Finally, the rest of the seats would be distributed among the other minority political parties.
In the SocioMetric survey for The Spanish, the most recent of all, held between October 31 and November 1, the PSOE would get 25.1% of votes, which would amount to less than 120 seats. The PP would achieve between 93 and 100 deputies in Parliament and the party led by Santiago Abascal would achieve 14.3% of the votes: more than 40 seats.
Citizens would sink receiving the same seats as ERC, around 15. United We could get between 36 and 40 seats in favor and More Country about 4% of the votes in his first participation in a general election.
The barometer of laSexta
The Barometer of laSexta, published on November 1, was made after the Franco's exhumation, the resolution of the sentence of the process and all the altercations occurred in Catalonia. According to these data, the victory of the electoral day of 10N would be for the left with 43.5% of the votes compared to 42.4% of the block on the right.
The PSOE would win the elections with 27.9% of votes followed by the PP, with 22% of votes. United We could be third political force with 11.8% and Vox would be ahead of Citizens to get 10.5% of votes.
Thus, the formation of Albert Rivera would achieve 9.9% of votes and would fall to fifth place, thus starring in the biggest hit among the great political forces in Spain.
In turn, More Country would break into the Congress of Deputies with 3.8% of the support.
With respect to abstention in these elections, a 86.4% of respondents say they will vote on November 10, almost ten points more than the participation of 28A. A 9% say they will not go to the polls to deposit your vote and 5% still do not know what you will do.
The last 'prohibited survey' of the Andorra market
'El Periòdic d'Andorra' published this last Saturday, a day of reflection throughout Spain, the last of the so-called 'prohibited surveys'. As it is not a national medium, it is not governed by the law that prohibits the dissemination of surveys and polls five days before election day.
The Andorran media has relied on the GESOP (Gabinet d'Estudis Socials i Opinio Publica) to publish the sixth and last of the 'prohibited surveys' in the face of the election day on November 10. And the portal 'Electomania' has echoed this data in its particular 'Market of Andorra'.
Thus, they state that the price of 'roses' has risen 0.4%, to 116-122, and that water has also increased the same percentage (83-88). According to the Andorran market, the 'broccoli' falls by 0.7, to 47-53. So he ranks his third place in the market before the increase in the price of 'eggplants', 0.3% that positions him with 39-44. According to market data, the 'oranges' also see their price increased by 0.4%, to 14-18.