Weather for Christmas 2019: Experts with lousy forecasts for holidays


How will the weather be at Christmas in 2019? Is there snow? There is still a little time left, but an expert already has a bitter prognosis.

  • How will the weather be at Christmas 2019?
  • The first experts have dared to make a prognosis.
  • The forecast is not in a good mood.

There are two things that we simply associate with each other: snow and Christmas. Every year many people wish for a white Christmas and hope for Peter. But what about 2019? Although December 24th is still far away, the first meteorologists are now venturing on a weather forecast for Christmas 2019.

First of all, the myth of the white Christmas as a normal case has to be destroyed once more. Statistically speaking, there is a probability of about 20 percent in Germany that snow falls on Christmas Eve. Last year, the German Weather Service had taken the trouble to evaluate the data from nearly 70 years. The result: White Christmas is pretty rare. Of course there are very big regional differences. Thus, the northwest generally has the worst chances to go to Christmas sledging. In the southeast this works most often.

Video: So the chances for white Christmas 2019

Weather at Christmas 2019: That tells the statistics

The differences between rural areas and cities are also very large. In the city comparison, Munich has the best chance of a white Christmas: every two and a half years, it works in the Bavarian capital. In Berlin, on the other hand, snow is scarce every five years on Christmas Eve.

Statistically, for example, Munich is overdue. But what are the chances in general in 2019? has already begun to answer this question – at least as far as this is possible with the enormous lead time. The meteorologists have looked at two different long-term weather models.

Weather at Christmas 2019: Is there a white Christmas?

In the model of the American Weather Service (NOAA) the December 2019 in Germany should be above average warm. In most parts of the Federal Republic, it is therefore one to two degrees warmer than average. In addition, the US model says that it will be much wetter in 2019 than normal – especially in western Germany and in the Alps. A Vb weather situation already caused wetness in November. All this speaks against white Christmas. However, the weather portal expressly indicates that the model refers to the monthly average of the entire December. This means that we can still hope for a particularly cold phase for Christmas and snow.

Since the US model is very general, also asked another weather forecasting system: The Climate Forecast System. And this calculates much more accurately. For December 24, 2019, however, this model predicts a rather mild weather flow. White Christmas is a long way off. Nevertheless, it is also true: one may hope further! Almost two months in advance, nothing has been set in stone in terms of weather.

Incidentally, in the general long-term weather forecast, one month is completely out of the ordinary until February 2020. For 2020, experts also predict the next El Nino year ahead. The weather phenomenon will probably cause drastic climate changes worldwide. Weather expert JOrg Kachelmann was by the way, the Christmas weather forecast of his colleagues not pleased.


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