Still not panic. But only two months after the start of the primary elections in the United States a very similar sensation has begun to spread among the followers of the Democratic party, who still do not see the emergence of a candidate with the necessary power to defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 elections.
That, at least, is what experts and personalities of this party have been saying. In fact, according to The New York Times, recently there was an emergency meeting between donors and figures of the Democratic establishment in which they began shuffling different names at 16 who still remain in the race for the nomination.
(Also read: Who is the billionaire who can compete with Trump?)
That mood was further exacerbated this week with the publication of a series of surveys in which things look ant-colored. According to the results of one of them, Trump's popularity remains very high in many of the so-called ‘undecided states’, Which usually define the presidential races in the US. UU.
Particularly in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, states that ended up giving Trump the victory in the 2016 elections and that the Democrats need if they want to have a chance against the Republican president.
In this survey, from the Times and Siena College, the possible results of a confrontation between Trump and the three candidates currently leading the Democratic race were also measured. Hand in hand with former Vice President Joe Biden, he beats Trump in four of the six states. But the difference is minimal and within the margin of error. In the case of Senator Bernie Sanders, the states are divided equally; while Senator Elizabeth Warren would only beat him in one.
Hand in hand with former Vice President Joe Biden, he beats Trump in four of the six states
Although the same name indicates that they are competitive states and will end up leaning to one side or the other by a handful of votes, The fear is that Trump has to win, because he has all the machinery that the presidency offers him.
At the national level, the Republican continues to have low popularity rates (less than 45 percent) and Democratic candidates, especially Biden, take several advantage points in those counts.
But as you know, in the US electoral system. UU. whoever accumulates more votes at the national level does not win, but the one that adds to its column most of the undecided states. Trump, in fact, became president despite losing the popular vote against Hillary Clinton.
The irony of the situation, however, is that despite facing a historically unpopular president and having an impressive bunch of candidates that stands out for his racial and gender diversity, None is emerging as a compelling or viable rival.
“What is missing is a candidate that inspires. Although they started 22 and still 16, none stands out for its virtues but rather for its defects”, Says John Zogby, whose company has been taking the political pulse temperature in the US for years. UU.
Biden, for example, started the race leading all the polls and is seen as one of the few that could defeat Trump, it is attractive to center voters. But it has been deflating with the months thanks to its poor performance in the debates. And it shows that the years (he is 77) weigh him and his ideas do not seem to excite young voters.
Age and health
Sanders, who has been climbing in the polls and was already a candidate in the 2016 primary, he has left positions that scare a sector of the electorate and, to top it off, he had a heart attack few months ago he has many thinking if he is in physical condition for a job as demanding as that of the US president. UU.
Pete Buttigieg, – the mayor of South Bend, Indiana – who appears as third or fourth in the polls, has left a pleasant feeling in the debates, but nobody believes that the country is ready to elect a homosexual president.
But the one that worries the Democratic establishment the most is Warren, which is shot in the polls and already exceeds Biden in several. His proposals, such as universal health for all and forgiveness of the debts of university students, have been criticized even by members of his own party, as they would result in increased taxes for the majority and would be easy prey to Trump's rhetoric, which is trying to paint the Democrats as a party that wants to introduce socialism in the US.
No one believes that the country is ready to elect a homosexual president
"The nightmare scenario is that in the primaries, where the party's most liberal base weighs heavily, it ends up anointing a very extreme person who marginalizes center and undecided voters," says the analyst.
That is why they have begun to air options that until now seemed impossible. One of them is the return to the ring of Hillary Clinton. His name, in fact, was mentioned in the cite of Democratic cocoa as an alternative.
Hillary herself has not ruled it out and recently, in a social media rifirrafe with Trump in which he told her to launch, Clinton replied with a "don't tempt me".
While there is no doubt that the former secretary of state would like to get the nail out of an election that she lost – according to her – because of Russia's role in Trump's favor, nobody seriously believes that her candidacy is viable.
Bob Shrum, a Democratic strategist who worked with former Vice President Al Gore, believes that Hillary drags on Biden's same problems – age, health and a worn message – it would generate strong divisions among the Democrats and could excite the Republicans, who hate it.
But there is another name that is generating a lot of interest. The billionaire and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg. While he had ruled out a candidacy in March this year (he never took off in the polls), Bloomberg surprised this week by announcing that he will present his name for the elections in the state of Alabama.
Although its launch is not yet official, the step it took is a good indication that it could soon be. Alabama is the first state that closes the deadline to register a candidacy and if it did not do it this Friday, it would have been disabled to participate.
With more than 50,000 million dollars in its coffers (he is the ninth richest man in the US), it could be the rooster to face Trump. But also a living testimony of the distressing situation of the Democratic party.
“Bloomberg wants to make sure Trump is defeated. But he worries that none of the current candidates seems positioned to achieve it. If he enters the race, he will offer a new alternative for the Democrats based in his impeccable record as mayor of New York and his story of great entrepreneur”Said spokesman Howard Wolfson.
But Bloomberg, too, would arrive with problems. Not only because it would start the race with many months of disadvantage, but because his Jewish ancestry, which could weigh him before the Christian electors, who are the vast majority in the United States. UU.
The most serious thing, however, is that it could further weaken Biden's candidacy – since both are seen as moderates – and open the door for the triumph of Warren or Sanders. Precisely what the establishment wants to avoid and that some believe would guarantee Trump's re-election.
In the middle of that storm, the Democrats received as a balm the victory of the party this week in the state elections of Virginia and in the race for the governorship of Kentucky, a state that Trump won by more than 30 points in 2016 and turned his back on Tuesday.
But as long as a candidate does not emerge who can channel the antipathy that at least half of the country has to the president, the slope will continue to be very hard to climb.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent