ชีพจรเศรษฐกิจโลก ไพรัตน์ พงศ์พานิชย์
Political conflict The overthrow of government in Myanmar Resulting in the situation in many cities of the country Fall into a state of apostasy The slaughter and chase happened every day. As if in a battle that must be eliminated from the other side to be able to.
So far this week, at least 460 unarmed protesters have been killed.
In the midst of the chaos that happened The nation’s economy has sunk more and more in the crisis
People across the country boycott products produced by business ventures controlled by the military, ranging from beer, cigarettes and cell phone networks. There were also more and more strikes by government officials in important ministries, including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Transport. And the Ministry of Public Health The goal is to disrupt government business. Cut as much of the income as possible by the junta.
Many observers point out that There are signs of a cash shortage in the hands of the military junta to see each other. After the military failed to put a massive $ 1 billion in cash left in the New York Branch State Reserve Bank because of the US freeze
As a cause on February 15 the past The Myanmar military junta attempted to sell a five-year government bond worth 200 billion kyat, but Economy said. There is only one buyer The amount purchased is only 1,700 million kyats. At the flower level, it is more expensive than usual as well.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had previously stated that. Myanmar has only $ 6.6 billion in foreign exchange reserves, including $ 1 billion it has been held.
The problem that arises is that Myanmar has to import several important consumer products from abroad. Since cooking oil To fuel Because it doesn’t have its own distillery While the kyat continues to depreciate.
Foreign investment Which used to be a major source of foreign currency completely disappeared. While the factory arson sabotage that was aimed at Chinese factories in the past. This makes the investment situation even worse.
In addition to the exchange rate, this is creating a huge problem for the Myanmar military government at this time. The budgeting of the state is also a huge problem. The IMF had previously estimated before the seizure of power that this year Myanmar’s budget was at 8.1 percent negative.
When the seizure of power occurred The civil disobedience movement of the people Causing the national economic system to be at a standstill While suppressing the rally with violence Resulting in all important nations in the West Both the United States, the European Union and the UK announced more and more sanctions as a result.
Myanmar Economic Holding Limited Or MEHL The main affairs of the military with various affiliates doing business. Full of overtaking targets, the number two companies paying taxes to the government in the country.
Myawaddy Bank One of the affiliates of MEHL. Is the fifth highest taxpayer is an example that shows that The Myanmar military government is in a large shortage of income. Additional deficit budgeting is a solution. But funding to support this deficit is not easy. If taking the previous case of funding through the bond market as an example
These factors may be enough to bring the general government to stand up. But certainly not the Myanmar military government.
The Myanmar military also has some legal and illegal income streams. Since the dependence of income from the export of natural resources Especially oil and natural gas. Or may turn to old methods of earning That is to charge protection from drug production and trafficking gangs. Or even direct the central bank to print out banknotes in a stubborn manner, regardless of how big the inflationary problem will follow
Including the extraction of fees taken from their own citizens Which is already happening, for example Service charges for container trucks that are owned by MHL. Moving the price up all at once to 80,000 kyat per trip 8 times higher than normal price levels
All of this can lead to a major economic crisis. The risk of famine due to the collapse of the economic system has increased accordingly.
The problem is that this critical situation will only endanger the common people in Myanmar. Rather than pressure until the subordinate army
History shows that many times The military consented to the collapse of the national economy rather than to turn away from power.
Read the original news: Devotion is destroying Myanmar’s economy