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Home Breaking News What the banking analysts in Bucharest say about the rise of the...

What the banking analysts in Bucharest say about the rise of the euro exchange rate

marcociannarel/Getty Images/iStockphoto fifty euro bills and a calculator

The depreciation of the national currency comes in a regional context, and other currencies in the region have a higher volatility and mark depreciations against the euro, writes Ziarul Financiar.

The leu / euro exchange rate reached a new all-time high on Tuesday, rising to 4.9156 lei / euro, the price being almost 1% higher compared to the level at the end of 2020.

The depreciation of emerging currencies comes in the context of the strengthening of strong currencies, according to explanations from the NBR. Practically, strong currencies are strengthening because interest rates on the dollar are rising, and as a result of improving economic conditions, interest in strong currencies is increasing.

“I have noticed great fluctuations lately. It remains to be seen what will happen. A new balance is to be found “, said Dan Suciu, BNR spokesman.

For 2021, most analysts anticipated the depreciation of the national currency against the euro, but did not forecast a rate above the threshold of 5 lei / euro this year.

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Ciprian Dascalu, the chief economist of BCR, claims that the depreciation comes on a global trend of risk aversion. BCR maintains its forecasts for an exchange rate of less than 5 lei / euro both in the middle of the year and at the end of 2021.

“We maintain our forecasts of 4.90 lei / euro at the end of June and 4.95 lei / euro for the end of the year”, says Dascălu.

Valentin Tătaru, the chief economist of ING Bank, does not think that we will witness a prolonged depreciation of the leu. “In general, we maintain our forecast for a 4.92 lei / euro exchange rate both in the middle and at the end of 2021. Our forecast horizon is 2 years and we have not incorporated in our forecasts a level of 5 lei / euro in no moment along this horizon “, explains Tătaru.

A reference moment in the first quarter of 2021 was March 5, when the exchange rate exceeded the level of 4.88 lei / euro, for the depreciation pressures to continue during March, the lei / euro exchange rate exceeding the historical maximum after the historical maximum.

On March 29, the quotation exceeded 4.89 lei / euro, so that yesterday it exceeded the threshold of 4.91 lei / euro.

Looking back on the evolution in 2020, it can be seen that with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic at international level, the tensions on the foreign exchange market have also increased.

Source: Mediafax

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