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90% of French people need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to return to normal in September 2021


About 90% of adults in France must be vaccinated by September 1 to return to normal, according to a study by researchers from several institutes, quoted by AFP. But this percentage is much higher than the number of people in this country who want to get immunized.

The new calculation methods of the scientists from the Pasteur Institute, the Institute of Public Health and the High Health Authority start from the hypothesis that the reproduction rate (R0) of COVID-19 in autumn, without any measure to control the epidemic, would be at least equal to 3, the same as in the first wave. Moreover, it is likely to reach 4 due to the massive presence of the British variant.

Currently, about 20% of French people have been confirmed with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

In the first scenario (R0 3), on 1 September, 90% of people over the age of 65 and 70% of those aged 18 to 64 (59% of the population) should be vaccinated to allow total relaxation of control measures and to keep the number of hospitalizations of patients with COVID-19 below 1,000 daily, between September 2021 – April 2022.

The second scenario, with the more contagious variant, this vaccination rate would be insufficient to remain below the threshold of 1,000 daily hospitalizations.

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Thus, 90% of adults should be vaccinated in order to return to a normal life.

However, this is unlikely, as a maximum of 79% of the elderly over 65 and only 36% of young people aged 18-24 want to be immunized, according to a survey conducted by the French Institute of Public Health at the end of the month. March.

To date, 9.5 million French people have been vaccinated with the first dose and 3.2 million in both doses.

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