Prices for “black gold” of reference marks during today’s trading do not show a single dynamics due to ambiguous signals for the market.
As of 8:25 Moscow time, June futures for North Sea Brent oil blend fell by $ 0.11 to $ 63.09 per barrel, May futures for West Texas WTI rose by $ 0.02 to $ 59.62 per barrel, Finmarket reports. …
According to Vladislav Antonov, analyst at IAC Alpari, yesterday “oil trading ended with a slight increase.” “A barrel of Brent rose in price by 0.44% to $ 63.27. The price is in a limited price range in anticipation of new drivers. The focus of market participants is shifted to negotiations between the US and Iran on the resumption of the nuclear deal, which almost stopped the flow of Iranian oil to the market, ”the expert said in his review.
According to him, “the head of the press service of the State Department, Ned Price, said that the United States is ready to lift sanctions on Iran, which contradict the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Action Plan – ed.).” “He also noted that the negotiations in Vienna with the participation of Russia, Iran, China and the European Union are being held in a constructive manner,” Antonov emphasizes.
He points out that “there are no important data planned for the oil market today.” “The price (of the benchmark Brent – ed.) With a 75% probability will keep the sideways movement in the range of $ 60.25-65.55 per barrel, in which it has been for more than 21 days,” the analyst believes.
Let us also recall that at the end of the first quarter of 2020, several waves of falling prices for “black gold” swept across the world oil market. The negative situation was caused by a whole range of factors: a general overproduction of raw materials, a sharp drop in demand amid the rapid spread of the coronavirus infection COVID-19 (a pandemic was announced on March 11) and concerns about its impact on the global economy, as well as the collapse of the OPEC + deal (officially from April 1, but in fact after fruitless negotiations between the oil-producing countries at a meeting on March 6 in Vienna).
However, on April 12, the OPEC + countries agreed on a new deal, in which 23 states became participants. The agreement is designed for 2 years – from May 1, 2020 to May 1, 2022. The new OPEC + deal was a forced reaction of oil-producing countries to the market situation and pressure from the United States. However, in general, it did not cover the decline in global demand; moreover, huge reserves of raw materials have accumulated on the market.
During 2020, the OPEC + countries held meetings, adjusting the parameters of the transaction taking into account the situation on the global oil market – starting in May to reduce oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day, in August they relaxed the restrictions to 7.7 million for the period until the end 2020 year.
On January 4-5, 2021, the ministers of the OPEC + countries made a compromise decision, according to which, starting from February, Saudi Arabia will voluntarily reduce oil production by almost 1 million barrels per day within two months, to about 8.125 million barrels per day, and a few more OPEC member countries will cut production by two months by a total of 425 thousand barrels per day. At the same time, Russia and Kazakhstan got the opportunity to increase production in February and March.
On March 4, following a regular meeting, the OPEC + participants unexpectedly decided to maintain the current level of oil production for all countries of the alliance, except for Russia and Kazakhstan, which will be able to increase production by 130 thousand and 20 thousand barrels per day from April, respectively.
On April 1, the OPEC + countries agreed to gradually increase oil production: in May and June – by 350 thousand barrels per day, and in July – by 400 thousand barrels per day.