The Russian national currency in the course of today’s trading on the Moscow Exchange is losing to the US dollar and the euro, and the rate of the single European currency for the first time since February 1, 2021 exceeded the mark of 92 rubles.
As of 09:31 Moscow time, the dollar exchange rate for tomorrow’s calculations rose by 26.5 kopecks. by the close of the previous session to 77.53 rubles. The euro rate has added 33 kopecks by this time. and was at around 92.0650 rubles., according to the exchange data.
As the analyst of IAC Alpari Vladislav Antonov notes, “the growing tension around the events in Ukraine remains in the center of attention of market participants”.
According to the expert, the weakening of the ruble is facilitated by “the news that Russia has begun to conduct a large-scale check of the combat readiness of the army, and in the Donbas they are preparing for an armed clash with Ukraine.”
“If the conflict continues, the ruble’s position will deteriorate. Speculators will start selling it aggressively, ignoring the oil market, ”warns Antonov in his review.
In his opinion, “after the breakdown of the level of 76.55 rubles. sellers of the ruble tuned in to the movement to the November low of 80.95 rubles. of November 2, 2020 “. “To ease the pressure on the ruble, the price needs to return to the level of 75.20 rubles. per dollar, ”the analyst believes.
We also add that, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (taking into account inflation) in February 2021 decreased by 0.1% (against the currencies of the main trading partners of the Russian Federation) relative to the previous month. At the same time, the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar during this period increased by 0.3%, and against the euro – by 1.2%. In the first two months of this year, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 0.8% (versus December 2020), but increased against the dollar by 0.4%, and against the euro – by 1.1%.
Note that in 2020 the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 14% (against the dollar – by 12.1%, against the euro – by 18.11%).