The main reason for the surge in inflation in Russia at the beginning of this year was the export component due to the rise in world food prices. This opinion was expressed by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov during the Exchange Forum.
“The main channel of inflation coming to us is not import this time, but still export to other countries. Import inflation came to us very gradually, and this effect was not pronounced and strongly prolonged in time, but export inflation came to us quite quickly, because we are a large exporter, first of all, of foodstuffs – wheat, sunflower oil, sunflower seeds and others. positions “, – quotes the” Finmarket “minister.
According to him, “as soon as there was a surge in world prices – and this was in November-December – exporters immediately reacted quickly, and this was the main channel of inflation, and this remains the main channel of inflation for the next year”.
We also recall that, according to Rosstat estimates, consumer prices in the Russian Federation increased by 5.79% YoY in March 2021 after rising 5.67% in February.
Compared to the previous month, inflation amounted to 0.66% in March. In the first quarter of this year, prices increased by 2.13% (versus December 2020).
The agency states that in February food products rose in price by 0.82% versus February and by 7.58% in annual terms, non-food products – by 0.72% and 5.92%, respectively. The cost of services increased in March by 0.37% versus the previous month and by 3.2% on an annualized basis.
As, in particular, Rosstat pointed out, in March the increase in prices (versus February) for certain types of fruits and vegetables was: for carrots – 14.8%, potatoes – 13.4%, beets – 11.2%, onions – 7, 5%, white cabbage – 6.7%, grapes – 3.8%.
We add that in 2020, inflation in the Russian Federation reached 4.91% (December to December 2019) after 3.04% in the previous year. Moreover, the result of 2019 was the second lowest value of this indicator in the entire history of modern Russia. The absolute minimum was recorded at the end of 2017 – 2.5%, and in 2018 prices increased by 4.3%.
The official forecast of the government of the Russian Federation for inflation for 2021 is 3.7%, the Central Bank – 3.7-4.2%.